Julius Jones; Pro Bowl Back?

Obviously after three games this is just wild speculation, but could free agent addition Julius Jones be looking at his first Pro Bowl in his first season with the Seahawks? Things seem tilted in Jones’ favor, and after two straight 125+ yard rushing efforts he certainly looks like the real deal.

I get it, busting off 127 yards against San Francisco and then 140 against St. Louis does not necessarily wow everybody if they haven’t actually watched the games, because neither defense is really that good. However, if you’ve seen Jones the last two weeks you know that what he has done is very impressive.

Jones has gained his yards without the help of gaping holes and perfect blocking. While the ‘Hawks offensive line is a dominant group physically, they are still gelling and injuries have again been a factor they’ve had to adjust to early in the season.

The run blocking has been far from perfect, but Jones has still managed back-to-back big games, breaking seemingly sure tackles, slashing through tiny spaces and fighting for extra yards on each and every carry. In my notes on last weeks win, here are the entries on Jones:

• Jones running hard again early, he really explodes once he touches the ball.
• It looks like Jones loves to be on the field, like he’s really enjoying himself.

• Jones looks bottled up but somehow breaks a tackle and bounces outside for a 30 yard touchdown. I love how hard this guy is running.
  

• Jones runs hard on third and 4 for a first down, keeps his legs moving for the extra yard and the sure first.
• Jones breaks out of a seemingly impossible situation for a long gain, spinning out of a tackle that would have dropped him for a 1 or 2 yard loss and going for 20+. I hate to say it again, but he is running so damn hard.
• Hold by Carlson subtracts a nice 6 or 7 yard gain by Jones on first and 10. Jones gets it just about all back on the next play on a run to the right, gaining 14. He takes another handoff and barely misses the first down with a 5 yard gain. Subtract the penalty and that’s 26 yards on 3 straight carries in the third quarter.

Do I sound like a Jones fanboy?

I think so, yes.

But I’m not.

I have watched a lot of football and I am not just gawking at his stats or giving him props because he is on my favorite team. The guy can flat out play and I think he loves that this is his opportunity to prove it. He has already talked about how much he enjoys playing at Seahawks Stadium, and he knows he has something to prove after being jettisoned from Dallas after last season.

That might be the perfect storm for a big time season out of Jones. He currently sits at 3rd in the league in rushing after three games, and his projected rushing total (though I put absolutely no stock in it after three games) is 1664 yards. The question, though, is could he really do it? Could he even put up 1300?

From watching the guy for three games (in addition to having seen him quite a few times with Dallas and Notre Dame), I think he could.

Even banged up, the offensive line has made a lot of progress and is very talented. Sean Locklear is almost set to return to the lineup full time and Mike Wahle looks like he fits right in next to Walter Jones. Pork Chop Womack’s health is once again in question, but even if he has to sit, Ray Willis and Mansfield Wrotto have both shown well at RG.

Also in Jones’ favor, the Seahawks are still without Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, and while they are said to be returning in week 5, that is far from a sure thing and they will both take time to get re-acquainted to the game once they do come back.

All this means in my opinion is a stead diet of Jones, Jones, Jones for the ‘Hawks upcoming opponents. Let’s take a look at those opponents and see what Jones might be able to do against them.

@Giants: New York is only giving up 84.7 yards per game on the ground (7th in the league) and their defensive line is definitely formidable. While they have not played the best rushing teams in the league, I doubt Jones breaks 100 yards against them unless the Seattle defense plays really well and gives the offense lots of possessions. Prediction: 87 yds, 1 TD (Totals: 399 yds, 3 TD)

vs. Packers: The Packer defense has been slashed for over 180 yards on the ground by both good running attacks they have faced (Minnesota and Dallas) and there is no reason to expect anything different against the ‘Hawks new “run to win” strategy. Prediction: 113 yards, 1 TD (Totals: 512 yds, 4 TD)

@Buccaneers: These are not the Bucs of old, but their defensive line is still solid if healthy and they’re always a sure tackling bunch. This also may be a game where Holmgren tries to open up the passing attack, as Branch and Engram should be fully healthy at last. Prediction: 93 yards, 0 TD (Totals: 605 yds, 4 TD)

@49ers: Jones tore up the Niners in week 2 and there’s no reason why he wont do it again. Prediction: 122 yards, 1 TD (Totals: 727 yards, 5 TD)

vs. Eagles: The Eagles defense looks really good against the run right now, but they haven’t faced more than 23 carries on the season and I don’t think they have the defensive line to bottle up Jones or the LBs to stuff him at the line. Prediction: 97 yards yards, 0 TD (Totals: 824 yds, 6 TD)

@Dolphins: The Miami defense is just not that good, that’s all there is to it. Against a high-powered offense (which I expect the ‘Hawks to be by this time) they’ll be in way over their heads. Prediction: 116 yards, 2 TD (Totals: 940 yds, 7 TD) 

vs. Cardinals: The Cards have done a pretty decent job against the run so far this year, and their defense is definitely talented. Both teams will be up for this game because it will likely be a close race for the division. Smash mouth all day from the ‘Hawks side and this will be a chance for Jones to put up huge numbers at home against a division rival. I bet he can’t wait. Prediction: 127 yards, 1 TD (1067 yds, 8 TD)

vs. Redskins: The Skins are a team with a solid defense but they can succumb to the running game if they’re pounded by a big back. Expect TJ Duckett to get a lot of carries in this game. Prediction: 74 yards, 0 TD (1141 yds, 8 TD)

@Cowboys: The Cowboys have a very good defense, and Julius Jones will be up for this game, especially since it’s in Dallas. We might have quite a battle on our hands here. Prediction: 107 yards, 2 TD (1248 yds, 10 TD)

vs. Patriots: I see the ‘Hawks throwing a lot in this game, especially short routes so Jones could be involved in the passing game, but I don’t think this will be a grind-it-out type contest for Seattle. Prediction:  77 yards, 0 TD (1325 yds, 10 TD)

@Rams: The Rams are in all kinds of trouble. Prediction: 129 yds, 1 TD (1454 yds, 11 TD)

vs. Jets: Favre comes to visit one last time? I can see Holmgren getting in to a shootout type mentality, just for fun since it’s his final season with the ‘Hawks. But with shootouts come draw plays! Prediction: 78 yds, 0 TD (1532 yds, 11 TD)

@Cardinals: If both teams keep up their ends of the bargain this could be an epic battle for the division and if that’s the case I see a big game for Jones. However, I don’t see the Cardinals keeping up with the ‘Hawks over the course of the season, so Jones won’t play much in this game. Prediction: 26 yds, 1 TD (1558 yds, 12 TD)

So that’s the best case scenario as I see it. Considering that we only have data from 3 games this might not mean much, but it’s interesting to contemplate. Worst case I think Jones is still good for 1100 yards and 7 TDs. If he’s able to stay close to his current pace though, 1500 yards and 12 TDs is just about a guaranteed Pro Bowl berth. Is it within his grasp this season? I say yes.

Photo: stltoday.com

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